|
leinad
|
 |
« on: February 27, 2008, 07:24:17 PM » |
|
Okay, this is not a poll about who you favor, just your prediction.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
spacebrat311
|
|
« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2008, 08:46:14 PM » |
|
I think that if Barack gets the democratic candidacy, his perceived campaign of change and his persona will win over a lot of on-the-fencers. If Hillary wins the nom, however, I feel like it's pretty much McCain's race. Hillary is too much of a polarizing figure to actually win an election that isn't limited to her own party.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
sup.
|
|
|
|
Josh
|
|
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2008, 08:57:52 PM » |
|
Obama's got it locked up. Clinton's done, and McCain can't compete.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
who me?
|
|
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2008, 12:38:04 AM » |
|
I don't even know who those people are, so I make it up. I've heard of Hilary Clinton, but I don't like her. I hope she doesn't win to be honest. If she does, New Zealand, Australia, England and America will all have Labour or equivilant governments. And having seen the chaos and general Bad Stuff that happens with Labour, I don't think that would be good.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
bethany
|
|
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2008, 06:11:45 PM » |
|
I think Obama.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Aaron
|
|
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2008, 06:15:01 PM » |
|
If it's Obama vs McCain, Obama will be elected.
If it's Clinton vs McCain, McCain will be elected.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
NinjaRob17
|
|
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2008, 10:17:15 PM » |
|
Whoever wins, there will probably be cake.
Just sayin'.
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: February 29, 2008, 09:51:15 AM by NinjaRob17 »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Vlad!
|
|
« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2008, 10:50:33 PM » |
|
If we got through eight years of our current president without an assassination attempt, I don't think any of the likely candidates are in much danger.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
If you don’t have freedom as a principle, you can never see a reason not to make an exception. There are constantly going to be times when for one reason or another there’s some practical convenience in making an exception.
rms
|
|
|
|
Josh
|
|
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2008, 07:59:32 AM » |
|
If we got through eight years of our current president without an assassination attempt, I don't think any of the likely candidates are in much danger.
Heh... I tend to agree, although our current president has made such a royal mess of things that the new guy (or girl, hypothetically) is going to have an awful lot to clean up. It's going to be an uphill battle, that's for sure. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Vlad!
|
|
« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2008, 08:43:20 AM » |
|
By the way, I would like to extend a warm welcome to all the secret service and NSA personnel who are reading the phorum thanks to this thread.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
If you don’t have freedom as a principle, you can never see a reason not to make an exception. There are constantly going to be times when for one reason or another there’s some practical convenience in making an exception.
rms
|
|
|
|
NinjaRob17
|
|
« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2008, 09:50:29 AM » |
|
Haha, yeah, I thought about that after typing that. My bad.  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Vlad!
|
|
« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2008, 12:15:32 PM » |
|
With your edit, this thread got a lot more humorous but also a lot more nonsensical.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
If you don’t have freedom as a principle, you can never see a reason not to make an exception. There are constantly going to be times when for one reason or another there’s some practical convenience in making an exception.
rms
|
|
|
|
spacebrat311
|
|
« Reply #12 on: February 29, 2008, 01:15:01 PM » |
|
Whoever wins, there will probably be cake.
Just sayin'.
The cake is a lie. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
sup.
|
|
|
|
Aaron
|
|
« Reply #13 on: February 29, 2008, 01:34:13 PM » |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NinjaRob17
|
|
« Reply #15 on: February 29, 2008, 02:11:34 PM » |
|
The cake is a lie.
 |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
spacebrat311
|
|
« Reply #16 on: February 29, 2008, 03:51:22 PM » |
|
AMAZING!
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
sup.
|
|
|
|
Vlad!
|
|
« Reply #17 on: February 29, 2008, 04:23:47 PM » |
|
MEME WAR
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
If you don’t have freedom as a principle, you can never see a reason not to make an exception. There are constantly going to be times when for one reason or another there’s some practical convenience in making an exception.
rms
|
|
|
|
spacebrat311
|
|
« Reply #18 on: February 29, 2008, 11:12:32 PM » |
|
Step 1: meme war
Step 2: ???????
Step 3: Profit
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
sup.
|
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2008, 01:21:29 PM » |
|
Well, if Hillary really rides the momentum now and wins every remaining state (not that that will happen), I suspect the superdelegates would rally behind her. But what I smell is a brokered convention. We may see Al Gore yet, especially if by August, neither Obama nor Hillary looks likely to beat McCain. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Josh
|
|
« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2008, 01:42:26 PM » |
|
They won't let it go 'til August. They can't give McCain that big of a head start. Early June, maybe.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2008, 01:58:00 PM » |
|
They won't let it go 'til August. They can't give McCain that big of a head start. Early June, maybe.
The Democratic convention is at the end of August. As far as letting the race go that long, I don't know that there is a choice, unless Hillary or Obama quits, which isn't likely if both feel that they are within striking distance. It may actually be the best case scenario for the Democrats. After the GOP has spent months attacking Hillary and Obama, pull someone else out of the hat. While I mentioned Al Gore above, it would probably be smarter to find someone with a low name-recognition, but a good resume'. That way it would be a fresh slate. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
eatahouse
|
|
« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2008, 08:58:51 PM » |
|
Ehh, if Obama and Clinton are so split, taking a third candidate (which won't happen anyway) would just divide the party into shreds.
I picked McCain in this poll (apparently I am the only one), as he still, according to polls, has both Obama and Clinton beat in head-on-head battles. A lot picked Obama, but if you had the chance to redo it, would you pick Clinton?
Looks like the convention will be pretty important.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Aaron
|
|
« Reply #24 on: March 05, 2008, 09:01:56 PM » |
|
If Gore really wanted to be President, he would have jumped in by now and Clinton and Obama would have been blown away by him. Gore would be prepping to go against McCain already.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #25 on: March 05, 2008, 09:55:05 PM » |
|
Ehh, if Obama and Clinton are so split, taking a third candidate (which won't happen anyway) would just divide the party into shreds.
I picked McCain in this poll (apparently I am the only one), as he still, according to polls, has both Obama and Clinton beat in head-on-head battles. A lot picked Obama, but if you had the chance to redo it, would you pick Clinton?
Looks like the convention will be pretty important.
I agree with you that McCain would probably beat Obama or Clinton. But, I am not convinced that either will face him. In my opinion, the delegates selecting someone else as the nominee would be more likely to heal the division than deepen it further. It would not be someone who had been voted against in the primaries (even if it was a candidate who quit early, it's not like many people were specifically trying to stop Richardson, Biden, or even Edwards, and desperation to stop Clinton especially may have cost the others support.) Think about it. If you're a loyal Democrat and happen to be an uncommitted delegate at the convention, and the polls show either of the two front-runners being defeated just two months thereafter, and knowing that someone must get the support of more than 50% of the delegates to secure the nomination, because otherwise it keeps going on to another round, what do you do? What do you encourage other delegates to do? I believe the stage has been set. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Josh
|
|
« Reply #26 on: March 05, 2008, 09:57:55 PM » |
|
Real Clear Politics has consistently had Obama beating McCain, and their polls are the most accurate you can find. Really, it's kind of a no-brainer: 72 year-old war veteran who was in his prime two generations ago, says we could be stuck in Iraq for 100 years, and basically mimics the majority of Bush's policies versus an exceedingly youthful, energetic, charismatic African-American man who speaks of hope and change and a better way. If the Dems don't elect Obama-- and if they don't help him win-- then they really don't deserve to have the White House.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2008, 10:36:56 PM » |
|
Even if those polls are correct (as eatahouse noted, there have been other recent polls which have shown McCain beating both), a lot can change between now and August. People are going to ask, is Obama prepared to deal with a genuine national emergency? As well, it sounds like there are domestic issues on which Obama may be especially vulnerable to Republican attacks, which haven't yet gotten much attention.
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: March 05, 2008, 11:23:15 PM by leinad »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Josh
|
|
« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2008, 11:10:30 PM » |
|
HRC is drilling him on the experience issue right now, and she's a MUCH tougher, meaner opponent than McCain could ever be. If Obama makes it to the nomination, the rest is going to be a walk in the park.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #29 on: March 05, 2008, 11:27:26 PM » |
|
But as the election gets closer, the general public is going to think more seriously about that kind of thing, and less just about who they would rather see win/lose. And it's not just about the individual opponent; the entire GOP will be trying to discredit Obama. Also, I think you underestimate McCain in that sense; he's known for his temper.
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: March 06, 2008, 12:37:32 AM by leinad »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Josh
|
|
« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2008, 07:43:50 AM » |
|
The GOP is only grudgingly supporting McCain, and they've proven to be in such utter disarray that I don't think anyone is too concerned about them suddenly organizing and rallying behind a candidate who is Republican in name only, more or less. Sen. McCain only got the nomination because it was a staggeringly weak field and a lot of Repblicans felt they owed it to the guy. Obama will run circles around him-- especially because McCain HAS to keep it about the issues.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
dgp11776
|
|
« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2008, 07:47:43 AM » |
|
I don't know which would be worse - Obama, Clinton, or Gore. I'm not a big McClain fan, either, to be honest. Who knows - maybe I'll sit this one out.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
ajyouthguy
|
|
« Reply #32 on: March 06, 2008, 08:01:25 AM » |
|
i'm with Shane Claiborne's new book on this one..."Jesus for President..." haha.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"When we spend so much time promoting everything we're against that the message of who we are for gets lost, when Christians are putting everyone else down, how is Jesus lifted up in that?." Doug Fields
|
|
|
|
Josh
|
|
« Reply #33 on: March 06, 2008, 08:03:51 AM » |
|
I should lay my cards on the table and out myself as a HUGE supporter of Barack Obama-- like, I'm a campaign donor and I have a sticker on my car and everything. And I say that as an independent who has, in the past, voted for Republicans and Democrats alike.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2008, 09:00:31 PM » |
|
It looks like Michigan and Florida are going to be redone, so the magic number of delegates needed to win will be higher than the oft-cited 2,025. And "Gore as the nominee of a brokered convention" is being talked about more and more.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Josh
|
|
« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2008, 10:14:54 PM » |
|
The media's trying to make this into as much of a circus as they can, but I doubt Michigan and Florida will be re-done-- it costs ~$11 million to do a primary, and that's for a small state-- and, if they ARE re-done, it will be in caucus form, which heavily favors Obama. Regardless, he's going to show up at the convention with a substantial lead in delegates and the popular vote, and the Dems can't afford to withold the nomination from him if that happens-- it would alienate the African-American and college-student communities and stigmatize the Democratic party for the rest of their lives, plus totally blow their chances in November.
Don't buy into all of the Clinton-manufactured fussing over Michigan and Florida, a Clinton-Obama ticket, etc.!
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2008, 10:29:22 PM » |
|
I certainly don't believe there will be a Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton ticket, but I disagree with you about Michigan and Florida not being redone. Florida at least is a crucial swing-state in the general election! Democrats can't afford to alienate voters from states they need to win, especially considering it's currently winner-take-all in the general election (we'll see if that changes!) The latest word is that it's probably going to be a mail-in vote.
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: March 10, 2008, 10:56:05 PM by leinad »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
dgp11776
|
|
« Reply #37 on: March 11, 2008, 08:40:28 AM » |
|
I've seen a couple of articles now about the possibility of McCain choosing Condoleezza Rice as his running mate. That would be rather interesting.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #38 on: March 13, 2008, 12:23:13 AM » |
|
I had a dream last night that it was the day before the next president was supposed to take office, and it still wasn't known for sure who it would be.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
leinad
|
|
« Reply #39 on: March 13, 2008, 02:14:36 AM » |
|
The more I think about it, I do hope that it's a "brokered" convention and that someone other than Hillary or Obama emerges as the nominee. Because that will cast doubt on the whole state-by-state nomination process, since it will have failed to produce a winner. The one-state-at-a-time mode it starts out in is crazy. Once Obama won Iowa and Hillary won New Hampshire, no one else had a chance!
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Poll
