Who will be the next President?

[murlough23]

Just today, CNN came out with their latest poll which shows that 50% of Americans would vote for....ANY Republican running in 2012 with Obama getting 45% of the vote. Obama's got time to turn that around though.

This is my problem with the two-party system in general - you get folks so loyal to one side that they'll happily take any candidate so long as they bear an "R" or a "D". I won't pretend that didn't have some bearing on Obama winning as well, after eight years of Bush. I'm happy that Obama is not Bush. But McCain also wasn't Bush (despite attempts by the Dems to paint him as such). More Bushy than Obama, obviously, but still.

[bloop]

Palin has sort of earned her reputation as, um, sort of dumb, and I think she'd be an albatross. I just wonder if the Tea Party will be its own thing by 2012. If so, that could take decades for the Republican party to recover from, if it recovered at all.

[murlough23]

Palin has sort of earned her reputation as, um, sort of dumb, and I think she'd be an albatross.

But that's just how the liberal "gotcha" media portrays her. 

I just wonder if the Tea Party will be its own thing by 2012. If so, that could take decades for the Republican party to recover from, if it recovered at all.

They certainly are doing a great job of recruiting Democrats. I once considered myself to be right smack in the center of the aisle, but every one of their dumb antics makes me drift farther to the left.

[Vlad!]

But that's just how the liberal "gotcha" media portrays her. 

Palin comes across as dumb, but I think your joking comment may have a hint of truth in it...I think a more appropriate adjective would be eccentric, and I think the media like to take her eccentricities and paint them in a light that makes her look comically inept. While I certainly don't think she's commander-in-chief material, I do think that if the Democrats underestimate her, it will be to their peril.

(I realize that this is a direct contradiction of my previous post, but I feel like in many ways the progressive left have built themselves a caricature of Palin to act as a straw woman in their invective against the right. By buying into this caricature, we set a very low bar for her, and if she manages to vault this bar she will look far better than if we treated her with respect and held her to the same standard we would hold a candidate we view to be more serious.)

[murlough23]

Palin comes across as dumb, but I think your joking comment may have a hint of truth in it...I think a more appropriate adjective would be eccentric, and I think the media like to take her eccentricities and paint them in a light that makes her look comically inept.

I gave Palin the benefit of the doubt when she first entered the limelight. It was her debate against Biden that made me say, "What." an inordinate number of times. I know that the "Tina Fey effect" has done Palin no favors, but most of that stuff was funny precisely because it took stuff Palin actually said and just tweaked it a little bit for emphasis. I don't want to be one of those guys who gets his news from SNL and the Daily Show, so when my first exposure to something controversial or just plain dumb that a politician said or did is through comedy, I'll try to check their facts. (In the case where I'd already watched the real debate, that had already been done, obviously.)

I don't think Palin is really as dumb as she is portrayed, but I do think she has a bad habit of amplifying misinformation. Whether it's intentional (to get supporters to rally agaisnt something they're already suspicious of and thereby support her) or unintentional (because she's truly misinformed), it doesn't make her look particularly good either way.

There's also the fact that SHE WAS THE GOVERNOR OF A FREAKING STATE AND SHE QUIT. Even if you buy the line that she was buried so deep in ethics investigations and the liberal media's attempt to hound her into oblivion and whatnot, then well, just try standing up to the scrutiny that a POTUS gets on a regular basis.

While I certainly don't think she's commander-in-chief material, I do think that if the Democrats underestimate her, it will be to their peril.

There certainly appears to be a fearsome number of Republicans who have practically sworn allegiance to the woman. This is partially because her stated beliefs and principles outweigh her actions in a lot of supporters' minds (a common problem with politics on both sides of the fence), and partially because she's done such a good job of convincing people they can't trust the media worth crap, which results in people believing a lot of hearsay and not checking up on the facts. If a person's checked up on the facts and still like her, then so be it. But I think misinformation is what keeps her image going as far as the Republicans are concerned. It's a shame, because the party could potentially come up with a reasonable candidate other than Palin, who would likely get ignored due to not having the same star power.

(I realize that this is a direct contradiction of my previous post, but I feel like in many ways the progressive left have built themselves a caricature of Palin to act as a straw woman in their invective against the right. By buying into this caricature, we set a very low bar for her, and if she manages to vault this bar she will look far better than if we treated her with respect and held her to the same standard we would hold a candidate we view to be more serious.

Respect has to be earned, though. She doesn't have mine because of her track record - NOT because of how the liberal media has caricatured her. That said, I enjoy the caricature a great deal. (I'd enjoy a good caricature of Obama if someone would actually come up with one.)

[bloop]

That said, I enjoy the caricature a great deal. (I'd enjoy a good caricature of Obama if someone would actually come up with one.)

Do you get Fox News Channel?

Oh, you said a good caricature.

[murlough23]

Do you get Fox News Channel?

Oh, you said a good caricature.

Yeah. I've seen bad ones. I've seen some racist ones. I haven't really seen any spot-on skewering of the man's true quirks and weaknesses. He does have them, of course. (Jon Stewart did a funny little riff on how his "Now let me be clear" usually means he's about to be anything but clear, but it was part of a larger routine about the Ground Zero "Mosque". Which in itself is a fun topic for discussion.)

[bloop]

Why did you put the word "mosque" in quotation marks and not "ground zero"? The term is more or less the kind of pure rhetoric people like this guy tend to gravitate toward.

[murlough23]

Why did you put the word "mosque" in quotation marks and not "ground zero"? The term is more or less the kind of pure rhetoric people like this guy tend to gravitate toward.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_zero

Seems to be an acceptable enough usage of the term. It's been referred to as that for so long that I figure we all know what we're talking about. I don't feel that the term is used to deceive people, so I don't get persnickety about it. We can call it the World Trade Center site if you'd like.

Where I think the leap occurs is when people refer to it as sacred/hallowed ground. I'm not superstitious and I don't think the dead particularly care what we do in the physical locations where they died, but I do think events like this should be remembered and the memories of the dead respected. I just don't happen to see an Islamic center - which will contain their version of a prayer chapel but which seems dubious to label as a mosque - being built a few blocks away as an affront to those memories, given that American Muslims living in Manhattan were not responsible for the attacks, and were likely just as terrorized by it as anyone else in the area.

But this is really a discussion for a separate thread.

[bloop]

It's a couple blocks away from ground zero.

[murlough23]

It's a couple blocks away from ground zero.

Point taken. You know what side I take on this, so I'm not trying to fool anyone here, but that is a good reason to be more careful with my terminology. I will henceforth refer to it as the "Ground Two Mosque". Though it is notable (and in fact, the exact reason they bought the building) that the landing gear from one of the fated flights crashed through this building's ceilings. Maybe a bit of a stretch, but it was a casualty of the attacks - I just don't think anyone was killed in this particular building. Not that it would change my opinion if someone had been.

[bloop]

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/outrage-over-plans-to-build-library-next-to-sarah-palin-201008193017/

[leinad]

Now there's talk about Hillary possibly taking Biden's spot on the 2012 ticket. I have also seen a bit of speculation that Obama may not even run for re-election. I wonder how soon we'll know.

[murlough23]

Now there's talk about Hillary possibly taking Biden's spot on the 2012 ticket. I have also seen a bit of speculation that Obama may not even run for re-election. I wonder how soon we'll know.

Even if he does run, probably about 25% of the American people will choose to believe he's not running, so it may not make a difference.

[Vlad!]

Now there's talk about Hillary possibly taking Biden's spot on the 2012 ticket. I have also seen a bit of speculation that Obama may not even run for re-election. I wonder how soon we'll know.

Is there any rational basis for speculation, or is it just wishful Republican thinking?

[leinad]

Hard to say. I am a bit surprised though that no President in recent history has decided that one term was quite enough, and not run for a second.

[murlough23]

Hard to say. I am a bit surprised though that no President in recent history has decided that one term was quite enough, and not run for a second.

I'm forgetting my history - has a sitting President eligible for another term ever declined to run?

I figure most Presidents in that situation think that at least their own party still likes them, and that they're more likely to keep their own party in office by running again, since they've got better credentials than any other available candidate, having been President already.

Then again, running for office is hell, and actually holding the office is probably hell as well, so I can see why someone would bail. I wouldn't begrudge them for it as long as they bailed at the end of a term.

[bloop]

Lyndon Johnson withdrew pretty early in the '68 Democratic primary season, but his initial intention was to run.

[murlough23]

Lyndon Johnson withdrew pretty early in the '68 Democratic primary season, but his initial intention was to run.

He also wasn't elected President, so it makes more sense for him to decline a second term. I guess I should have specified my question to make it about Presidents who were elected the first time around, rather than succeeding after the death or resignation of another.

[bloop]

Johnson was elected at that point. He won the 1964 Presidential election over AuH₂O.

[Vlad!]

Legend has it that James Knox Polk is the only president to keep his campaign promises, of which there was but one: that if elected, he would serve for only a single term. I don't know if this is true or not, but he did promise this and he did voluntarily serve only a single term.

(Things you know from growing up in East Tennessee).

[murlough23]

Johnson was elected at that point. He won the 1964 Presidential election over AuH₂O.

Guess I forgot that weird rule about what happens if you take over for someone else mid-term.

[leinad]

Now the National Enquirer is reporting that Michelle Obama has threatened to divorce Barack if he seeks a second term.  Yes, it's the National Enquirer, but they've gotten some big things right in recent years.

[bloop]

Oh, Gautama H. Buddha, just stop. 

[murlough23]

Now the National Enquirer is reporting that Michelle Obama has threatened to divorce Barack if he seeks a second term.  Yes, it's the National Enquirer, but they've gotten some big things right in recent years.

Yeah. Wake me when a legitimate source reports the same.

[enemy anemone]

breaking news: the National Enquirer reports that leinad only visits the phorum to post about reports from the National Enquirer.